Business economists worry about possible recession in 2020
AP NEWS – June 4, 2018: The article highlights that a group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Donald Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession.
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) says in its latest quarterly outlook that its panel of 45 economists expects the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, to expand 2.8 percent this year. That is down slightly from the panel’s March forecast, which put GDP growth this year at 2.9 percent.
The NABE economists are “slightly less optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2018 than they were three months ago,” says NABE vice president Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council.
Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trump’s get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects. …
(BattleForWorld: When Trump finishes with his presidential career [one term or two term], for sure the United States economy will be in tatters. They will blame Trump, but he’s not the cause of it, because for many decades the United States elites have been manipulating the accounting books to support US hegemony military power where the military budget and high theft…have decimated the countries’ balance sheet into unsustainability. There will come a day when several countries [Germany, China, Japan, etc.] come asking for their money and the US at that future time will have nothing to offer them other than delay to pay.)
U.S. Budget Deficit Widens; Weak Revenue
WSJ – June 12, 2018: The article highlights that the Federal budget deficit was $146.80 billion in May, 66% wider than same month a year earlier – 2017.
The U.S. government’s budget deficit widened in the first eight months of the fiscal year, reflecting lower revenue from corporate taxes combined with ramped-up government spending.
The deficit, or the difference between the amount of money the federal government spent and what it took in, totaled $532.24 billion in October through May, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. That was 23% more than the deficit of $432.85 billion during the same period a year earlier.
Tuesday’s report showed the federal budget deficit was $146.80 billion in May, 66% wider than the same month a year earlier. Government revenue fell 10% last month compared with a year earlier, while spending grew 11%.
Inflation at Six-Year High, Eating Away at Wage Increases
BLOOMBERG – June 12, 2018: The article highlights that inflation is a six-year high, eating away at wage increases. And that U.S. inflation accelerated in May (2018) to the fastest pace in more than six years, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s outlook for gradual interest-rate hikes while eroding wage gains that remain relatively tepid despite an 18-year low in unemployment.
The pay figures are “a reminder that you don’t need to necessarily get more aggressive in your approach because wages haven’t accelerated as much as they have in the past,” he said.
At the same time, several Fed officials have indicated that a modest overshoot of the inflation goal wouldn’t necessarily warrant faster interest-rate hikes, after years of below-target price gains.
A separate Labor Department report on Tuesday illustrated how higher prices are pinching wallets
Medicare to Go Broke After 2026 for Senior Citizens – Reports
SPUTNIK NEWS – June 5, 2018: The article highlights that Medicare, the US universal health insurance program for senior citizens aged 65 and older, will run out of money to cover hospital expenses in 2026, three years earlier than expected, according to an annual report by trustees for both Medicare and the Social Security retirement program.
The trustees project that the HI [hospital insurance] Trust Fund will be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than projected in last year’s report,” the report stated on Tuesday. “At that time dedicated revenues will be sufficient to pay 91 percent of HI costs.”
Meanwhile, Social Security, which provides income for retirees, will cost more in 2018 than the program collects in taxes and interest for the first time since 1982. …
Social Security to Dip Into Reserves THIS YEAR (2018)
WSJ – June 6, 2018: The article highlights that Social Security expected to dip into its reserves this year 2018, because the
aging population is boosting the costs of Social Security and Medicare as growth projections ease.
The Social Security program’s costs will exceed its income this year for the first time since 1982, forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits.
This is three years sooner than expected a year ago, partly due to lower economic growth projections, according to the latest annual report the trustees of Social Security and Medicare released Tuesday. The program’s income comes from tax revenue and interest from its trust fund.
The trust fund will be depleted in 2034 and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to shore up the program’s finances. Without any changes, recipients then would receive only about three-quarters of their scheduled benefits from incoming tax revenues.
Social Security to tap into trust fund for first time in 36 years since 1982!
MARKET WATCH – June 6, 2018: The articles states that Medicare’s finances were downgraded in a new report from the program’s trustees Tuesday, while the projection for Social Security’s stayed the same as last year.
Medicare’s hospital insurance fund will be depleted in 2026, said the trustees who oversee the benefit program in an annual report. That is three years earlier than projected last year.
This year, like last year, Social Security’s trustees said the program’s two trust funds would be depleted in 2034.
For the first time since 1982, Social Security has to dip into the trust fund to pay for the program this year.
It should be stressed that the reports don’t indicate that benefits disappear in those years. After 2034, Social Security’s trustees said tax income would be sufficient to pay about three-quarters of retirees’ benefits.
But that Congress could at any time choose to pay for the benefits through the general fund.
The Future of Global Capitalism with David Harvey
RT – June 9, 2018: David Harvey, Author of “Marx, Capital, and the Madness of Economic Reason,” discusses the future of global capitalism.